Will Harper Get the Majority Government He Wants in the Next Election?

I find it incredibly fascinating to listen to everyone's analysis of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the Conservative Party platform/policies and the polling numbers over the last 5 years that Harper has been in power.  The consensus out there seems to be that we will have a majority government after the next election, but a few others point out that it's not over until the last vote is counted.

Gerry Nicholls has criticized Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party for abandoning core conservative values and he's not alone.  Andrew Coyne spoke of the abandonment of conservative values at the 2009 Manning Centre Networking Conference and the party's inability to expand their base of supporters on his appearance on the Agenda on January 5, 2011 discussing the state of the federal leaders (at the 10:50 mark of the program, a great episode to watch if you haven't seen it).

Because Harper has had a minority, I'm not sure that he's lost as much support as some would lead you to believe, but there are many out there, including some blogging tories who have felt they've made enough excuses for the government's reckless spending and have washed their hands of Harper.

There seems to be two key points that are consistently talked about by Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party; how Canada is doing economically and the threat of a coalition government if there isn't a majority. 

The first message appears to be for the benefit of already Conservative supporters and the latter for people who couldn't stomach an unelected coalition government comprised of tax-and spend Liberals, separatists and tax-the rich Dippers.  If you won't vote for the Conservatives based on the good job they've done then you'd better vote for them so the coalition monster doesn't get you.

Now, I'm not saying that the threat of an unelected coalition isn't real, I think Harper is right by saying they probably would try something like that again, what I'm curious about is how effective this threat will be in scaring people into giving Harper a majority.  Seems fear is a very effective weapon when it comes to winning elections.  Harper has always (and still is, sadly) portrayed as scary by the Opposition, as having some radical pro-American hidden agenda (remember the Liberal attack ads saying Harper would put soldiers in our streets?).  Perhaps he's turning that fear against them and using it for his advantage this time. 

It's as if Harper is saying this: "Scary? You think I'm still scary?  I'm a competent leader, I'm a great guy, heck, I play the piano, sing Beatles songs and wear the occasional fuzzy sweater! You call me scary?  If you want scary, just imagine what Canada would be like with an unelected coalition of Liberals, Bloc and NDP running this country.  That would be the scariest three-headed monster you'd ever see!"

The Conservative government has worked hard at building in-roads to the ethnic communities, displacing the Liberals position as the only party that looks after their interests.  Where I'm not sure the government has made in-roads is with the female voters.  They generally vote Liberal and are more concerned with social issues than policies dealing with taxes or crime.  Peter Mansbridge in his interview with the PM might have suggested that he's not Conservative enough in his questions to the PM, but I'm not sure many female voters out there think he's any less Conservative.  I still think having his wife appear with him in his interview on CTV with Lloyd Robertson was more strategy than nicety in wooing female supporters, but that's just my opinion.

Voting history in Canada demonstrates that sometimes (though not always- Diefenbaker went from minority to majority 1957-1958 and King in 1936 had a minority then later in 1935 won a majority) majority governments come with either crisis (Reciprocity 1911- Borden, 1935- King or Chaos, etc) or utter disgust with the party in power (1957- Diefenbaker after a long Liberal reign in power and Chretien in 1993 after Mulroney as examples).  Harper has none of those advantages, unless you call the possibility of a coalition a crisis.  I'm not sure many people do, not enough to get off their seats and go vote anyways.  Harper himself was escorted into office with the public backlash of the Adscam scandal at the Liberal Party.

What Harper does have to his advantage is a change in the wind across the provinces, especially in Ontario and Quebec.  The disgust that many are feeling in Ontario when speaking about Dalton McGuinty and any of his bright and oh-so expensive ideas such as the HST for starters (the list is long...) as well as the recent election of a conservative-minded mayor in Toronto are bringing about a change in the voter's minds about what they want from their government. 
The popularity of the Liberal government in Quebec is virtually non-existent as many wait with baited breath for Charest to get the hell out of office.
What is happening provincially, ie., the disgust voters have for tax and spend regimes could transfer over to the federal government as support for an increased mandate to put forward more fiscally conservative policies.

The trend seems to be towards a fiscally conservative government that will allow for greater individual freedom from big government.  I think Maxime Bernier explains this phenomenon best in his appearance on Question Period on CTV back in October.

If Harper aligns his party's sails right, he may be able to use these changing winds to help push his government's ship into the vast ocean of a majority government and get out of the shallow shores of minority waters.  I don't know that asking voters to give his party a majority because of the good job he's done or the threat of a coalition is enough to give Harper the majority he's looking for.

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